Watching the Storm? Kevin Arnone Tells You All About It (in Plain English)

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Oct 272012
 

Category 1 Storm moving NE at 11 mph away from the coast of Florida coast. Current sustained winds at 75 mph and gusts of 90 mph and pressure at 961 mb.

Meteorology Behind Sandy

I want to talk about exactly what is happening in laymen terms with the latest on Sandy.  Sandy is beginning to track NE up the Eastern Seaboard where she will come in contact with warm Gulf Stream Water, which will help to strengthen the storm.  As we know warm water is necessary for the growth and life cycle of a tropical storm.  What is important concerning Sandy is when she begins to strengthen she will then make a shift NW.  WHY YOU ASK? Well I will tell you!

The reason Sandy is making this very rare shift NW is (not to sound cliché) but it is literally a perfect setup.  To our NE there is a strong High Pressure system, which is literally blocking and helping Sandy to make the NW shift.  High Pressure rotates in a clockwise motion where sandy will rotate in a counter clockwise motion.  Not only is the High Pressure helping to shift Sandy towards the coast but also an approaching Cold Front to our West will actually “Combine” if you will with Sandy.  This Cold Front is actually called an A Front due to the weather being behind the Front instead of ahead of the front, which is normally the case.

Sandy will draw in energy from the Cold Front, which will turn Sandy into a Major CAT 1 Hurricane, with characteristics of a Nor Easter. I have heard people saying Sandy is a Nor Easter with a Hurricane in the middle.  Some of you may not know but the NE side of a Hurricane is usually the worse with winds.

Since Sandy is pushing in towards the NW this makes CT in the worst spot.  Long Island Sound will feel effects from winds that come from the East or “East Winds” which will literally just pile up water down the Sound.  Further West in the sound will have the worst effects.  Also Monday night is a full moon which naturally makes tides 7 feet higher then normal.

Where We Stand as of Saturday 2 PM or 18Z

These are the important facts and what needs to be shared.  As of right now Sandy is agreeing with what the models have been suggesting.  She is tracking NE at 11 mph away from the Florida Coast.  Maximum sustained winds at 75 mph and gusts up to 90 mph.  Pressure is 961 mb.
Now what is very important to understand is even though people may only say Sandy is only a CAT 1, a storm of this size and the Meteorology behind it especially with a pressure of 961 mb you “CAN NOT” focus on the Category and where she will make land fall.
Sandy is forecasted to grow much bigger and more powerful and people 500 miles away from the center of circulation or the “EYE” will feel tropical force winds.  The models are pretty concise about making landfall around Central NJ.  Before I get into a forecast let’s talk about storm surge.  This is a very bad situation for CT.
A storm of this size and this magnitude will pummel the coast if it plays out.  A good friend of mine Meteorologist Quincy said “During Irene last year the average storm surge was around 3.3 feet.”  When I saw this I was alarmed.  Storm Surge forecasts for Monday Night and Tuesday Morning are suggesting 6’+ throughout Eastern CT Coastline and 8’+ Towards Bridgeport and the Western CT Coastline.  NYC is 10’+.
Not only does this cause a major problem but when you add the fact of a Full moon Monday night which will naturally bring raise the water 7ft during high tide, this may cause MAJOR PROBLEMS for the coastline.

Lets Talk Forecast! AS IT STANDS FOR CT COAST!!!

Worst of the weather will be Monday Afternoon into Tuesday Morning.  As I mentioned before Sandy is over 1000 miles wide and effects will be felt for days.  I expect

Sunday winds 10-20 mph with gusts 30+ ENE.

Sunday Night winds 15-30 mph with gusts 35+ ENE.

Monday Afternoon winds will be 25-35 mph range with gusts 45+ ENE.  

Monday Night winds around 40-50 mph with Gusts of 65+ ESE.

Tuesday Morning winds 35-45 mph and gusts 50+ ESE.

Showers will start Sunday afternoon worst of the rain Monday into Monday night where we can see 4+ inches locally. 

This forecast isn’t set in stone just yet but I want people to know and be aware of what is expected right now! I do expect MAJOR Power outages mostly along coastline as well as SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING. 

***Inland CT will have rain to a much less extent and winds not nearly as close to the shore***

Now is not a time to panic but a time to prepare.

CT is under a state of emergency.  It’s time to get food, gas, water, batteries, flashlights and what ever you think you need if power was out for an extended amount of time.  If you live on the coast or if you can see water from your home, please don’t be brave, good chance parts of Connecticut will be suggested to evacuate.  One thing I can say is if you experienced flooding during Irene, Sandy is forecasted to “One Up It.”

I WILL BE REPORTING FROM THE SHORE WITH VIDEOS AND PICTURES BEFORE AND DURING THE IMPACT OF SANDY

I will be constantly updated my website as new data comes in but as always you can follow me on twitter and like me on Facebook as I have been posting up to the minute Sandy Facts. If you have any questions feel free to email me at MeteorologistKevin.Arnone@gmail.com
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